Snow crab catch could drop 14 percent or more

Rough waters ahead for snow crabbers? USCG photo

Here's a highly anticipated letter out today from the National Marine Fisheries Service discussing the status of various crab stocks, most notably Bering Sea snow crab.

As we've discussed recently here on Deckboss, snow crab has been under a 10-year rebuilding plan that's just about run its course.

Government scientists don't believe the stock has made enough of a recovery from its crash in the late 1990s, so the feeling among many industry players was that regulators might cut the catch limit for the upcoming season, which opens Oct. 15.

This letter seems to confirm that fear.

As I read it, the letter suggests a maximum total allowable catch of 50.5 million pounds, which would be a 14 percent drop from last season's limit of 58.6 million pounds.

But NMFS counsels even more conservative harvests as a way to speed up stock recovery under a proposed five-year rebuilding plan extension.

"Allowing the maximum catch this year may result in a potentially greater reduction in the harvest rate in future years to meet the rebuilding goal," the letter says. "Conversely, a more conservative harvest rate this year may allow for a higher harvest rate in the future and still meet this goal."

A lot of people on both the federal and state levels have a say in setting the final catch limit for this season.

We should know by the first of next month where the fishery stands.

Snow crab, for those who don't know, is one of Alaska's most valuable commercial crab fisheries, worth roughly $50 million to $100 million dockside in recent years.

Upwards of 100 boats take part in the fishery, including some featured on the Discovery Channel's hit show, "Deadliest Catch."

Although the fishery opens Oct. 15, most of the main snow crab harvest takes place after the first of the year, when the crab are in prime condition.

Managers move to save snow crab fishery

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game wants to get rid of a regulation that could shut down the upcoming Bering Sea snow crab fishery.

The underlying problem is that the catch limit could be drastically lower this season because the depressed snow crab stock hasn't made enough progress under a 10-year rebuilding plan.

Under existing state regulations, the stock must be capable of safely supporting a commercial catch of at least 15 million pounds (not including community development quota). Otherwise, the fishery can't open.

But the rule is archaic, the department argues, imposed to control a fleet that once was much larger with each boat racing to catch as much crab as possible. The worry then was that a big and powerful fleet could overshoot the quota before managers could whistle the harvest to a halt.

Beginning in 2005, the universe changed and each boat received its own quota. The racing stopped and the fleet consolidated. So the need for a sizeable catch limit no longer is necessary, as boats can rationally fish a quota of less than 15 million pounds without worry of overharvest.

The department is asking the state Board of Fisheries for expedited consideration of a proposal to drop the rule.

We'll know soon how big, or small, the snow crab total allowable catch (TAC) will be for this season.

Fishery scientists on what's known as the Crab Plan Team are meeting in Seattle this week to go over the latest stock assessment.

The National Marine Fisheries Service has indicated it'll announce a maximum harvest rate by Sept. 21, keeping both the stock assessment and rebuilding plan requirements in mind.

Last year's TAC was 52.7 million pounds of snow crab (plus CDQ of 5.9 million pounds).

Crabbers are unlikely to enjoy a limit that large when the new season opens Oct. 15.

Sept. 21: D-Day for snow crab fishery?

Earlier this summer we touched on the subject of how this winter's Bering Sea snow crab fishery could be headed for a deep cut in the catch limit due to lack of progress under a federal stock rebuilding plan.

The possibility is partly a function of legal requirements, coupled with the results of this summer's at-sea survey of the crab population.

The state manages the snow crab fishery, one of the state's most valuable crab harvests. But it appears ultimate authority for setting the upcoming season's catch limit rests in federal hands.

So when will we know something?

According to this letter, the feds plan to specify the maximum harvest rate by Sept. 21.

Feeling crabby

Deckboss hears a group of concerned Bering Sea crab fishermen are holding something of a summit this morning in Seattle with Jim Balsiger, head of the National Marine Fisheries Service.

They're meeting at the Bay Cafe at Fishermen's Terminal to express worries about a potential slashing of the snow crab catch limit this coming winter season.

Here's a recent item I wrote for Pacific Fishing magazine that explains:

OPILIO WOES: Will next season’s Bering Sea snow crab harvest be a lot smaller? Very possibly, though not purely for lack of crab. The concern is that the stock hasn’t made enough progress under a 10-year federal rebuilding plan implemented in 2000 after the crab population, and the commercial catch, took a nosedive. A group of scientists, the Crab Plan Team, has recommended a significant cut in the catch limit for this coming winter season to meet the rebuilding goal by the required 2011. Two factors, however, could have a major bearing on whether we see a quota cut: the results of this summer’s at-sea stock survey, and a forthcoming federal legal opinion on the implications of not rebuilding the stock within the specified timeframe. Bering Sea snow crab harvests have ranged from 25 million pounds to more than 60 million pounds this decade. But the growing catch remains a far cry from hauls of more than 300 million pounds seen in the early 1990s. Because of the rebuilding concerns, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game will delay its announcement on the season catch limit until October to allow for additional scientific review. Normally the quota is announced by late September.

Word is this morning's breakfast meeting with Balsiger could draw even some "Deadliest Catch" celebrity crabbers like Sig Hansen.

Significantly, here's that legal opinion from NMFS clarifying the situation on snow crab rebuilding.

I don't have time to analyze the letter this morning, but I hear some crab industry players view it with some relief.