Thursday, October 29, 2015

Bristol Bay forecast is out, and it's big

The state is projecting another large sockeye salmon catch next year in Bristol Bay — 29.5 million fish.

This year's catch was 35.7 million sockeye.

Here's the 2016 forecast.

58 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dear Governor Walker,
With another massive return to Bristol Bay, we need additional processing capacity to avoid forgone harvest losses. Our land based foreign processors cannot handle these large runs, you need to solicit and approve the introduction of foreign floaters immediately. We cannot afford another season of bankrupting ex-vessel prices and abysmally low catch limits. The springtime release of The Processors Capacity Report does not allow adequate time for those additional floaters to develop, finance, and implement a valid business plan. Furthermore, The Processors Capacity Report does not address the processors capacity to pay what would be considered a fair trade price. The fishermen and communities of Bristol Bay are in an overall dire financial strait. We need the State of Alaska to step in, protect and provide for us as is due and deserved. This is your responsibility and your privilege.

Thank you,
The people of Bristol Bay

Anonymous said...

I agree. Give someone else a turn.
What's the gamble?
What do you have to lose?

Anonymous said...

The 2015 Bristol Bay run was completely processed 10:04. The 2015 report stated that they would be 6% short on capacity. That missing 6% was actually bought, and processed.

"This is your responsibility and your Privilege?

The NEW processor solved this capacity problem, no thanks to any of the people of Bristol Bay.

Coming Soon; the Bristol Palin set net capacity report!

You got just who you voted for, and back when you needed a foreign processor, she did absolutely nothing.

Just elect a setnetter; the drifters Dream Boat Annie!

http://www.adn.com/article/20150805/state-certifies-signatures-alaska-setnet-ban-ballot-initiative

Anonymous said...

The people of Bristol Bay should also be arguing for a decrease in hatchery salmon production in the state. Hatchery production is clearly having a detrimental effect on BB market conditions.

Anonymous said...

One wonders if the processing sector will use the forecast to drive ex-vessel values for sockeye even lower than the record low (inflation adjusted) prices seen in 2015. Perhaps there would be some fall-off in production at 0.35 or 0.40/lb base, but if not, it would be an opportunity for solid profits. Fishermen have shown time and again that they are relatively immune to ex-vessel valuations...we catch just as much and fish just as hard at $1.50/lb as we do for 0.50/lb. I guess the question for processors is if many of the harvesters go broke over the next season or two, what then??

Anonymous said...

Are you kidding me. Strict limits would likely raise the average profit per permit over 10 years. I know it'll never happen, but the bay should try managing for maximum economic yield instead of maximum biological yield. Many other industries do this. Also,while we're at it, let's rethink the hatcheries across the state for pinks and chums.

Anonymous said...

Great another huge BB run to screw up the pricing for the rest of the state.

Dear Gov Walker,
Please discontinue the Bristol Bay salmon fishery. They are a bunch of whiners and there fish is crap.

Sincerly,
Not Bristol Bay

Anonymous said...

I agree with 2:07.

Anonymous said...

Let's do the math: we could have had a stable mining operation in the Bristol Bay region, on state lands, in a designated mining region, that produces 1,000 full-time jobs @ $100,000 per year, for 50 fifty plus years.

Or we can celebrate what we now have - a subpar product at subpar ex-vessel prices for commercial fishermen, who constantly whine about how unfair the basic concept of economic supply and demand curve is for pricing, how the state should step into the market to regulate in a profit for themselves...

And in an unrelated note, in 1912 the Bristol Bay region was covered in many feet of volcanic ash and debris that cause catastrophic changes across the whole region, including lakes, rivers, and streams. That catastrophic volcanic eruption footprint was 100,000 times larger than the proposed mining footprint.

Next up - the environmental and commercial fishing alliance proposes to ban volcanic activity in the Bristol Bay region...

Anonymous said...

November 1, 2015 at 6:49 AM

So, @6:49a.m. the whole 2015 Bristol Bay run, everything was harvested (of the harvestable sockeye), people weren't placed on limits...was completely processed ??? Thanks to Silver Bay?

I thought some fishermen were put on limits and fish ran up the rivers?

Anonymous said...

Yes, 10:32 Some Majors went on limit and some didn't.

AGS and Silver Bay, didn't go on limit, that's FACT.

Evidently their processing capacity, matches their fleets abilities.

The CFEC's quartile spread with be spread quite wide this season. That's been the same forever.

Anonymous said...

It's supply and demand...fish farms are real, get used to it...no demanding of a better price, or strikes, or other liberal entitlement attitudes will change this.....it, simply, will, not!

Joe fisherman said...

Where is the effort to market wild salmon in the U.S.A. If people new what a great product we all produce and it 's benifits to our diet as well as the economy maybe , and I say maybe, this whole Idea of going fishing year after year with no idea of price would resolve or at least give a more open door veiw of marketing possibilities in this country. The Wild Salmon harvest is a small part of the seafood consumed in the U.S year after year and to no surprise. We as "fisherman" need to create demand and interest in our product no matter what area we fish. How you take care of your product should determine your price.

With the amount of wild salmon harvested ,even on big years there should be no need to reley on foreign markets . Wild Salmon is one of the last great and sustainable resources in the world and we should all be proud to be a part of this industry. Create a demand,tell eveybody you know about the truths and myth's of the farmed salmon industry and the benifits to all that wild salmon continue to provide us. Get educated

Anonymous said...

I agree with 4:10PM, and as far as 1:21PM goes--if you are correct, then wild harvesters, over time, are doomed because we will not be able to compete with industrial salmon farms in cost of production. Our operating costs to run these boats are increasing significantly year-to-year and we simply will not be able to sustain viable businesses with ex-vessel prices we saw 40 years, or longer, ago. Let alone have an industry that new entrants want to participate in. We HAVE to differentiate wild salmon from farm salmon in the market, and convince consumers that our fish is worth paying a little more for. That is our charge as an industry. If we can't do that, then we're in a pretty bad spot.

Anonymous said...

Just ask Peter pan fisherman how limits went..?????

Anonymous said...

6:06.......I agree, The desire for wild fish and the fact that sockeye have not been successfully farmed, is why Bristol Bay ever makes money. And yes if that desire diminishes,.......we are in a tough spot. Frankly ex-vessel prices of old will never be seen again.....because of farmed fish....supply and demand. It's the only time I cheer for the greenies.

Anonymous said...

Peter Pan hired Hillary Clinton once. She was fired three days later. That explains Peter Pan's processing capacity survey 8:19, None.

Anonymous said...

Reality check - thirty percent of "wild" salmon sold to consumers in the USA is in fact farmed Atlantic salmon. Most of the rip offs occur in restaurants, according to a recent report from Oceana.

In an industry that lacks traceability (maybe intentionally?), handling standards, mandatory icing and bleeding of product prior to delivery to processors, is it any wonder?

And as long as seafood is shipped overseas to be processed, this will continue to be an issue.

Anonymous said...

Bristol bay shouldn't even be included in the coversation about high quality wild AK fish. Its a canned product fishery, which is a product that less and less people are eating. I love salmon, we eat frozen sockyeye fillets at least 2 times a week with my family. Eating a tin of salmon is gross, its not just the bones and skin either. You can find nasty internal viscera in the cans.

The volume of Bristol Bay just allows the processors to lower the price for the rest of the state. Bristol Bay is a drag on the rest of the states salmon fisheries, small fish, low quality, poor product. Its time to seriously consider suspending the bristol bay fishery and allowing for a more productive industry to move in...mining.

Anonymous said...

Same story different decade. Production (catching) of fish should be the problem not marketing a catch. With all the new markets opening up in Asia why is it so easy for farm fish to dominate those markets. Prices of those farmed fish at super markets in Asia and Europe are high dollar items. In all my travels in Thailand, Vietnam, Spain, France, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia and numerous other countries why is it all you see is farmed fish? Because the Cannaries are lazy and stuck in old school sales techniques.

Erick Sabo said...

Sign the petition/letter to Commissioner Cotten to get a mediator involved with Bristol Bay's low prices.


https://www.change.org/p/sam-cotten-commissioner-of-the-alaska-department-of-fish-and-game-fair-prices-for-bristol-bay-permitholders

Anonymous said...

enough of the mining bullshit

Anonymous said...

1:32, the only thing a mediator will do is waste tax payers money, the fish and game will only tell the cannery's to put a price down, and they will, 1 cent

Anonymous said...

Sam cotten's the wrong guy to get involved, let alone identify a mediator to deal with the Bristol Bay fishery on the Bay's behalf. His background is associated with the Aleutians East Borough and Area M - not exactly certain he'd be the best advocate for our region?

Anonymous said...

And 9:38, you are correct, Bristol Bay is required to reduce the quality from the old 1929 Management Planning Division of Sam Cotten. You know the type, the postage stamp area, the postage stamp 32 footer, that now costs 48 cents. And that cheap 32 degree water, thats also not allowed for, by a group of canners that haven't upgraded their facilities, using that same old Iron Chink from 1929.

The smashed and the trashed, roll 'e into the stern so you can be sure that a little more cash, isn't available due to the same old clowns at ADF&G, who like the product cheap.

They like their fish hot, just that pile of cotton on the back deck.

"Now Sam McGee was from Tennessee, where the cotton blooms and blows…Till I came to the marge of Lake Lebarge, and a derelict there lay;
It was jammed in the ice, but I saw in a trice it was called the "Alice May."
And I looked at it, and I thought a bit, and I looked at my frozen chum;
Then "Here," said I, with a sudden cry, "is my cre-ma-tor-eum."

http://www.poetryfoundation.org/poem/174348

Anonymous said...

9:38, you are obviously just a fool.
Not every can of sockeye is equal, but they sure kick the hell out of humpy in a tin.
You want to talk about drags on market values? Overproduction of hatchery humpies.

Mining at the expense of sockeye? Go suck a sock.

Traceability and regional branding, with continuing quality improvements, better marketing and consumer education.
Bristol Bay is not still just your father's smash-n-bake, getting a better pack every year.

I don't believe that a mediator would find the middle ground to be a penny. I would be interested in seeing what information a state sanctioned mediator could source. A strike is not a wise option on a disappearing commodity. Strike a business deal and don't sue your business associates.
Mediation.
Or, just go fishing for whatever table scraps are dropped for you at the end of the meal.
Sit, roll over, beg, shake hands, good boy!
Pretty embarrassing and inadequate to put it mildly.

signed,
BB1

Anonymous said...

Wild sockeye Costco fzn vac $9.39lb tri-tip 6.99 farm alt.7.39 wtf it never goes down at retailers oh I mean Costco wholesalers bullshit 50.cents just don't go next year and get on the welfare how about deckhands that didn't make shut they coming back?WTF for only one tasteful bite of that turd and they won't forget the smell!!!!!! mining that's the answer dumbfucker...put the road in and were all fucked look at all dip netters in cook inlet if we all stand as one we would get a fair price picket lines are the only way unions or slavery were divided now and well be forever its over guys just suck it up.the only way is to not fish on an open ticket so reap what you sew dumbest's jackass's on the planet!!!!!!!! butt jamm

Anonymous said...

1:32 Get a clue, it's pretty bad when you think you can mediate against market forces. Explain to everyone what the fisheman's leverage is. Here's how that will go.

BB Mediator - We demand higher prices!
BB Processors - Sorry but no.
BB Mediator - Please
BB Processors - no
BB Mediator - Ok we tried, who has my check?

A bunch of guys will wash out and the leftovers will make more.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, enough with the mining bullshit. The majority of the permit holders are not from Bristol Bay, so who cares about local residents having access to multi-generations of full-time, well paying jobs.

In an unrelated note, the legislature is fixing to close down many rural schools across the state in a money saving measure, especially in those communities with declining populations and no real economic base to support the community.

Anonymous said...

Sure; I'm a bit behind... Just got back to my mailbox after 10 months of playing captain...

There was a rather intriguing article in the November issue of National Fisherman about the Bristol Bay 2015 season - which, I'm sure most of you may have read.

Not sure whether it's a dichotomy or an oblivious contradiction...

"After all, we almost had to pay the processors to take our fish as the ex-vessel price fell from $1.33 in 2014 to less than half that for this season"

"After all the bags were gone, fish holds full and dry bags strapped to rails, we put fish in totes and 40-gallon plastic trash containers."

Must be some new fancy RSW trash cans.

Deliver trash. Get trash prices.

Stop your whining.

Anonymous said...

Permits to $17,500.00, just like 2002. And for last years grads of the Young Fishermen's Summit who bought this spring for $168,000?

Hope & Change, the State can still afford you?

Alaska Psychiatric Institute
3700 Piper Street, Anchorage, Alaska 99508-4677
Telephone: (907) 269-7100
Facsimile:(907) 269-7251

Anonymous said...

1:58......If it is a declining population with no economic base to support the community then then there isn't reason to be there.

Anonymous said...

So many smart people on this thread, so many great ideas, it's too bad people can't unite and work together for something for their own benefit. I sense many posters have no knowledge about the fishery and are just throwing out their stupid opinions, some of the posters sound like they work for the processors, some are fishermen, others are just....

We all know the canneries got their margin but stiffed the fishermen, time will only tell what happens next, I'll tell you now it won't be good if the price is not adjusted in the near future or if the same is paid next season, there will be either a strike or some sort of a lawsuit filed (price fixing etc) because $.50 LB simply won't cut it, it's either loose everything or fight, the time is now, whether we do something or nothing, my suggestion is: shut down the Bristol Bay salmon fishery until the market improves.

Sincerely
Bristol Bay fisherman of 26 years

Anonymous said...

I have been fishing the Bay for over 35 years and it's the same old story- too much fish, not enough fish, dollar too strong, too many small fish, too many big fish ,farmed salmon, alwas an excuse. Now we are getting what we got 35 years ago ,wait in 1980 it was 54 cents WTF. Supply and demand argument what B.S. there have been huge runs in the past and the fish got sold and the price was better than 50 cents. Same story different year, things will never change as there are alwas guys that will fish for nothing.

Anonymous said...

Ok, the strike talk has finally surfaced. I was waiting for that. Why do we study history? To learn from our mistakes. Those considering striking should study past history. They don't work in salmon fisheries. Don't give me the "if only everyone would unite" I won't and neither will many others. Yeah, yeah yeah....you're going come get me. You're going to trash my boat. You're going to put my name on a wall. Guess what, I've always broken strikes and NOTHING has ever happened. The only thing strikers get is the right to point fingers and whine. BB is a good fishery and our product is constantly improving. You strike promoters think in terms of us against the processors. Those of us that partner with our processors and invest to improve quality do not accept representation from anyone and WE WON'T EVER STRIKE! Bristol Bay provides a good living and/or supports our other occupations. It's a very good deal for us. If you don't like it get out. Oh, and buttjam...grow up!

Anonymous said...

Largest salmon run in the world, sustainable, world markets increasing. United States imports of farmed salmon are increasing and U.S consumption is on the rise. There are new markets becoming available in China, Thailand, Vietnam and Maylasia all hungry for salmon. Oh yeah Bristol Bay fisherman we can only give you 50 cents a pound sorry but we don't know if we can handle the fish. BULLSHIT
We need to get our head out of the sand things can change but you need a start. A mediator, a price negotiator, a marketing co-op what ever.
Yes it will work but it has to have a start. Write your Senator or Congressman stop farmed fish from coming in or put higher tarriffs. Call your Market and tell them your not happy with the price. Be a pain in the ass. If you can afford it sit out a year and tell them why.

BB permit holder, boat owner everything I have is paid and still can't make it at 50 cent

Anonymous said...

I would be interested to see what the state's net margin for the whole bristol bay salmon fishery is. The total tax gross less all the ADFG cost, enforcement, Coast Guard, etc. I would venture that the state is running a serious loss with the fishery. On top of that, these BB whiners have the nerve to suggest that the state to step in and mediate on price. Its been said before the entire bristol bay fishery is a drag on the state...shut it down.

Anonymous said...

Yes, BBay ruined the whole states sockeye price.
You think .65 for 100,000 lbs is bad try .95 in SE with a 25,000 lb season.

Anonymous said...

A good read.
http://www.alaskajournal.com/2015-11-04/confluence-factors-causing-disconnect-salmon-pricing

Anonymous said...

Most of the comments on here are from people that think the processors are screwing them, that someone is at fault that they're not making more money. I wonder how many of these guys have RSW, float their fish, or most importantly in todays market bleed their fish. ( Can you even sell a sour, unbled tuna anymore ? why a sockeye ?) If the processors are making so much money, (some will lose money this year in Bristol Bay) why will Silver Bay fishermen/processor owners not receive anymore for their fish this year than the base price - are they screwing themselves ? Why do some fishermen think they can slam, throw, kick, stuff fish into their dry, warm bacteria ridden boat, then whine & demand that they get more money & that they're getting screwed. The low IQ gang has it figured out, it's the scabs fault from 20-30 years ago, time to strike ( strikes don't work with the here today, gone tomorrow spawning species like salmon & herring) and now it's the ill thought out "price mediator" idea. The idea of a price mediator would be great if you knew every year the exact amount of product that would be harvested, the exact amount of all competing product on the global market to be harvested, probability factor of possible Chilean coho or other farmed salmon disease outbreak, currency exchange forecasts etc. Once again another idea from the I want more money for my pile of shit crowd. It's a great idea on a year when there is a 25 mil forecast & 50 mil fish show up, I got my price-so what my processor was forced into bankruptcy, oh wait.. who am I going to sell to next year? But what about the year 50 mil are forecast & 25 mil show up, oops - just shot myseif in the foot, negotiated a price but the market doubled between June & August. When things aren't all rosy the cannibals & morons come out (buttjam's & scab yappers). I've been gillnetting the west coast for 49 years, 36 in Alaska & 34 in Bristol Bay and can see after reading the comments on this site why the rest of the industry thinks gillnetters, Bristol Bay especially, are a bunch of idiots

Anonymous said...

8:02......as a Bristol Bay fisherman.....I vote you for president

Anonymous said...

8:02: You nailed it. Thank you.

Anonymous said...

8:02 is correct. But don't also overlook the failure of the processors, especially in Bristol Bay, to reinvest and upgrade their plants. No one has yet duplicated Lowerance and his accomplishments that continually put more money in his fleet's pockets. To get the most value per pound out of the fish at the lowest cost per pound you have to have high volume operations with H and G, fillet, portion half and quarter canning lines, oil etc. Silver Bay got the high volume part right and now they are starting fillets, but they still need canning to deal with the number 3 and small fish that can't be filleted and have low H and G value. They will probably get there eventually. But how do you wake up the others?

Troy Thomassen said...

When the price of sockeye drops in the bay it effects the price for all other species. My home pack is usually sockeye,Kings, and steelhead. I use the humpys I keep for substance red crab bait. A.S.M.I. Needs to do a better job.
Btw I'm a seiner n think all salmon fisherman have some hard times ahead.
It doesn't look like there's really much hope this year for volume based fisheries below 58' parallel.
Save your money, split wood,fix your own equipment,live off the land, join a board to educate yourself. Etc.etc. lots of issues happening this year that can't be controlled...IT WILL BE WORSE NEXT YEAR !!!

Anonymous said...

It will be worse next year, prepare yourself!!!

Anonymous said...

How do you wake up the others 5:19?

Make it simple, buy every fish on that upcoming 16 million 100 year average harvest.

Put up the cash sign, and strip the Seattle Seven of product.

"Silver Bay got the high volume part right…"

You'd have to take a little risk, and post a preseason number, and maybe even have to raise it depending on if you wanted to; SET THE PRICE of Bristol Bay Salmon.

"But when men have realized that time has upset many fighting faiths, they may come to believe even more than they believe the very foundations of their own conduct that the ultimate good desired is better reached by free trade in ideas -- that the best test of truth is the power of the thought to get itself accepted in the competition of the market, and that truth is the only ground upon which their wishes safely can be carried out…."
Mr Justice Oliver Wendel Holmes, Jr.
https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/250/616/case.html

Anonymous said...

OMG T Granger has crawled back out from under his rock.

Marianne Connor said...

If all skippers and maybe crew were to donated a case or 2 of salmon to food banks and churches and the soliciters on the street corners we could gain advertising and speed up the use of current inventory.

Anything to reduce inventory is a plus.

Anonymous said...

Fishermen can't afford to buy the canned salmon. We need a donation.

Anonymous said...

Im not saying it's a good price at all, but when are all you victims all going to admit that except for the dry boats, you're been paid $.65 - $.75 per pound? If we're going to talk about % of wholesale price, etc, let's at least use the right numbers. $.50 is NOT the right number and you all know it!

Anonymous said...

10.55 Please tell us who has been paid .65 or 75. I got RSW and still have only got $.50 and told that adjustment will be made later. So please tell us all

Anonymous said...

if you don't like how your fish is being marketed or sold - you may want to change the processor who is buying your fish and marketing/selling it for themselves, not for you. they don't care about you>>> find someone else who has a better relationship with a retailer who actually cares about the fish and fishermen they're working with from Bristol bay. as a by the by qfc in seattle area selling previously frozen socks filet for $8.99/lb. - that's fun.

Anonymous said...

9:01 AM, Leader Creek. We received .50/lb base price plus .22/lb for "best fish" After July 16th we received .65/lb plus .22 for "best fish"

Because you asked, I'm answering your question. I know you are going to say "well that hardly represents the majority" and you'd be right. I'm just piping in with the facts.

You were told you'd receive an adjustment later. Does that not indicate to you that 50 cents will not be the final?

Anonymous said...

The guys who sold their fish for 31% less must feel pretty stupid. Keep this thing going you BB guys are entertaining, what a clusterf%$k.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Bristol Bay fishermen are entertaining and so is all other salmon fishermen are as well, I hear fishermen from many other areas complaining the they got paid 50% less this season, Bristol Bay fishermen will set an even lower grounds price next year for you and you all will be singing blues in 2016.

Anonymous said...

Bristol Bay has to be the worst salmon fishery in the state. Pain in the ass to get there, worst price, beholden to limited markets, no duration on the season so any mistakes or breakdowns screw you. Maybe Chignik could compare with their lousy market. How couldn't you see this coming a mile away? Abenomics and the Japs have been printing money as fast as possible, we sanction one of our biggest markets, markets consolidating, a bunch of new entrants. You only sing the blues if you don't pay attention to whats going on.

Anonymous said...

Nov 5 7:59 if your a big strike breaker then you forgot to post who you are must be Mr .badass rite!!! More like dumba__ still be putting them in for nothing and theres no problem with the bay ?you would be the problem! everyone spouts there horn louder when there held unaccountable so grow up your self and post your boat and name and get the credit big talker scab P.O.S.!

Anonymous said...

It's pretty interesting that the people on here who are slamming the bristol bay fishery are in the same breath touting pebble mine, sounds like a bunch lobbyist trying to create a mob mentality to me. maybe im crazy but ive never spoken to another fisherman whose supported pebble mine and ive been fishing all over the state since i was able to hold a gaff. sorry but if you want to see a higher quality fish the incentive needs to be there. so that not round hauling to catch quantity makes "cents". And kind of moron wouldnt want a competitive market in any fishery??