The continuing crab crash

The situation with Alaska crab remains dismal, according to preliminary survey results the National Marine Fisheries Service posted today.

Male and female populations of Bristol Bay red king crab "remain low across all size classes," the agency says.

And survey estimates for mature male and female Bering Sea snow crab are even lower than in 2021.

The results suggest the red king crab fishery will remain closed this season, and the snow crab fishery, which opened with a small quota last season, might be shuttered as well.

The outlook isn't entirely bleak.

"The positive news is that we saw a significant increase in immature snow crab abundance, both males and females. Depending on how many of these young crabs actually survive to adulthood, this could be one bright spot for the fishing industry in a few years," said Mike Litzow, survey lead and director of the agency's Kodiak Laboratory.

Negative outlook for crab fisheries

Results from this year's Eastern Bering Sea bottom trawl survey suggest we could see substantial quota reductions in Alaska's two most valuable crab fisheries.

Bristol Bay red king crab
The biomass estimate for legal-sized male crab is 22,424 tons, down 17.6 percent from last year's estimate of 27,209 tons. (See Table 6 on Page 31 of the survey report.)

Bering Sea snow crab
The biomass estimate for legal males is 51,670 tons, down 27.8 percent from last year's 71,550 tons. (Table 19, Page 44)

Fishery managers will announce catch limits in the coming weeks. The crab fisheries open Oct. 15.

Are Alaska crab quotas headed for a fall?

The North Pacific Fishery Management Council's Crab Plan Team will meet all next week in Seattle, and a key document on the table will be this technical memorandum with the results of this year's Eastern Bering Sea bottom trawl survey.

Deckboss certainly didn't have time to read the full 172-page report, but he did manage to find these intriguing snippets regarding the two most important commercial species:

Bristol Bay red king crab
In 2015, an overall decrease in male red king crabs was observed compared to last year. (page 16)

Bering Sea snow crab
Mature male and female and pre-recruit-male abundance and biomass is substantially down from 2014, and below the previous 10-year average. However, an increase in juvenile abundance over the past 3 years provides hope for strong recruitment in upcoming years. (page 25)

A couple of tables within the report are certainly worth a look: Table 6 for red king crab (page 37) and Table 19 for snow crab (page 50). Each table indicates a big drop in "legal male" biomass in 2015 compared to 2014.

It won't be too long before fishery managers announce catch quotas for the upcoming crab fisheries, which open Oct. 15.

A mixed outlook for Alaska crab

Fewer snow crab this season? ASMI photo

The quota for Bristol Bay red king crab might go up a bit, but the Bering Sea snow crab quota could see a substantial cut.

That's the outlook in a nutshell for Alaska's two most valuable commercial crab fisheries, based on this technical memorandum detailing results of this summer's eastern Bering Sea bottom trawl survey.

Typically, the quotas for these fisheries are announced at the end of September or in early October, once federal and state scientists have analyzed all the available data and settle on the numbers.

With respect to Bristol Bay red king crab, Deckboss would direct your attention to Table 6 on page 32 of the PDF, under the "Legal male" column. It shows a biomass estimate of 19,713 metric tons of legal-sized male crabs, the big boys that crab fishermen can retain and sell. That's an increase from the prior year's estimate of 15,412 tons.

As for Bering Sea snow crab, also known as opilio, take a look at Table 19 on page 45. It shows a legal male biomass estimate of 104,456 tons, down nearly 29 percent from the 2011 estimate of 146,275 tons.

This suggests we could see a retrenchment from the recent upward trend in harvest quotas for snow crab.

Deckboss cautions that many factors go into calculating harvest quotas. But estimated legal male biomass is one good indicator of where we might be headed for the upcoming season.

The technical memo includes data on other fisheries including Bering Sea bairdi Tanner crab, a brawny version of the snow crab. The numbers suggest the fishery is likely to remain closed, as it has been for the past two seasons.

Steady on for pollock

This summer's Bering Sea bottom trawl survey showed a "slight decrease" in the pollock biomass compared to 2010, the National Marine Fisheries Service reports. Details here.