The state is forecasting a commercial harvest of about 133 million salmon this year, which would be much smaller than last year's haul of 207.9 million.
These salmon forecasts would be more useful if pinks were aggregated independently, because the odd even year variation in just pinks drives the overall variation of the Alaska salmon forecast, at least this past decade where the odd years are pink dominate in the Gulf of Alaska and even years are not.
so it is no surprise that in 2020, an even year, the overall projection of harvest will be less than in 2019, an odd year.
More interesting and useful forecast is what is the salmon forecast for all other salmon independent of pinks.
These salmon forecasts would be more useful if pinks were aggregated independently, because the odd even year variation in just pinks drives the overall variation of the Alaska salmon forecast, at least this past decade where the odd years are pink dominate in the Gulf of Alaska and even years are not.
ReplyDeleteso it is no surprise that in 2020, an even year, the overall projection of harvest will be less than in 2019, an odd year.
More interesting and useful forecast is what is the salmon forecast for all other salmon independent of pinks.