Uh-oh.
Independence Day usually marks the peak of the Bristol Bay fishery, and so we would have expected a much bigger harvest by now considering the state's preseason forecast of 37.6 million fish.
Alas, we've seen plenty of seasons when the catch came in way under, or way over, the forecast.
This looks like one of those way under years. Even if the industry doubles the current tally, we'd have only 16 million sockeye for the season, far below last year's harvest of 28.8 million.
Still no word on fish prices. But an unexpectedly small harvest should push up prices substantially, don't you think?
A Big Ouch for the new guys who geared up big--Copper River Seafoods and Silver Bay?
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the Majors will give there fishermen a good loyalty price? Or will it be the same old story that there not worth anything. ASMI teleconference on the horizon!
ReplyDeleteBig price increases.....
ReplyDeleteNot likely, the fish statewide are tiny, the market for fresh is still soft and nobody wants this many tiny frozen sockeye. Or at least that's the reasons given on the south end of the peninsula.
Russian sanctions haven't lifted, Euro is still low, Norway is cranking farmed fish, and the yen continues to drop. I think if they give 10% above the horrible preseason rumors we should call that " loyalty bonus ".
There are international market considerations with BB Sox. The yen and euro factor into the pricing. Both have recently been extraordinarily weak. How should this be factored relative to a
ReplyDeleterevised 2015 seasonal catch?
The price drop for sockeye began with Frazer River anticipated run of 70m in 2014, and when the Bristol Bay hit 29m fishermen got way less then 2 bucks a pound last year, this year the price tumbled only because a 38m catch for Bristol Bay was predicted, funny how the price changes before any catches are made, seems like fishermen always pay the price and canneries looking for an excuse to pay less, yes the price will be better with 16m catch versus anticipated 38m.
ReplyDeleteThe strong US dollar vs weak currencies elsewhere mean it is much more expensive for our foreign customers to buy AK fish. Hopefully the US market will make bigger buys for sockeye.
ReplyDeleteAny grounds price info? $.50, $.65, $.80 - - -?
ReplyDeleteWhat does "the price will be Better" mean Anon - 5:32am? better than whut?
ReplyDelete"Early reports say they're being paid about 65 cents per pound."
ReplyDeleteBristol Bay sockeye harvest not meeting projections
Associated Press
July 9, 2015
http://www.adn.com/article/20150709/bristol-bay-sockeye-harvest-not-meeting-projections
As of July 10th at 11:00 PM at least one Naknek-based processor was close to issuing limits to the fleet following two days of sustained 10k + averages from the Nak/Kvi fleet. Chuck from FRI is confident the run will hit at least 30 million with 35-40 more likely. This isn't anywhere close to being over yet.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't you think that a site run by a " journalist covering Alaska's commercial fishing industry" would have a little more info on the state's most valuable salmon fishery?? There's all kinds of rumors out there about prices, revised forecasts, catches, etc in what has to be the screwiest season ever that I would think would be reported on this site. Not just 2-4 little teasers per season that everyone already knows. C'mon Wes, how about a little digging and more reporting??
ReplyDelete