The Alaska Department of Fish and Game today issued the 2011 sockeye salmon forecast for Upper Cook Inlet, and the numbers look strong.
The projected harvest total for all user groups is 4.4 million to 4.8 million fish. That's well above the 20-year average harvest of 3.8 million.
Last year's total harvest for all user groups was 3.6 million sockeye on a preason forecast of 2.3 million.
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The 3.9 million return for the Kenai River, an above average return, is from the three high escapements in the last decade. These escapements were supposed to the death of sockeye on the Kenai - why it was just last year about this time Dr. Maw was writing to the Governor asking for a disaster declaration because sockeyes would never return from the "over" escapements into the Kenai in prior years...
Well the Kenai last year had what turned out to the an good return after a forecast based on the brood year interaction model predicted disaster.
The department had to finally revise the escapement goals for sockeye on the Kenai and Kasilof after returns from large escapements didn't crash the system as some cultish claims suggested...
Can you say put a fork in the whole disaster from over escapement mantra from Bear Paw et al...
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